Ghana’s cocoa sector has shown signs of recovery after more than a year of sustained decline, recording a 3.4% growth in the first quarter of 2025, according to data released by the Ghana Statistical Service (GSS).
This marks the first expansion of the cocoa sub-sector since the second quarter of 2023 and signals a potential turning point for one of the country’s key export industries.
The recovery ends a six-quarter slump that raised alarm across Ghana’s agriculture value chain and threatened broader economic stability. The cocoa sector had been reeling from poor weather conditions, disease outbreaks, and global price volatility, leading to one of its worst performances in recent history.
Historical Contraction
In 2023, cocoa output fluctuated slightly but remained weak — with growth rates of -0.1% in Q1, a marginal uptick to 1.2% in Q2, then -0.4% and -1.1% in Q3 and Q4 respectively. The sector’s troubles deepened in 2024, experiencing sharp contractions of -20.2% in Q1, -26.0% in both Q2 and Q3, and -21.4% in Q4.
Sector-Wide Rebound
The cocoa rebound aligns with a broader recovery in the agriculture sector, which grew by 6.6% in Q1 2025 — a significant increase from 2.4% during the same period last year. The entire Ghanaian economy expanded by 5.3% during the quarter, buoyed by strong performances in the fishing (16.4%), information and communication technology (13.1%), and manufacturing (6.6%) sectors.
Outlook and Challenges
While the 3.4% growth in cocoa is modest, analysts see it as a critical sign of stabilisation, particularly as global demand for cocoa products begins to recover. However, they caution that sustaining this upward trajectory will require targeted interventions, especially in input distribution, disease control, and price management for farmers.
“Rebounding from such steep losses is encouraging, but it’s just the beginning,” said one agricultural economist. “Without sustained investment in the sector, we risk falling back into the same cycle.”
As Ghana looks to consolidate gains in Q2 and beyond, stakeholders are calling for policy consistency and enhanced support mechanisms for farmers to ensure long-term resilience in the cocoa industry.
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